── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Alejandro Tabilo
64%36%
Hard: 60% / 40%
Clay: 62% / 38%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Alejandro Tabilo
78th · strong
Return
Tommy Paul
94th · elite
Alejandro Tabilo
58th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#38
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Left
USA
country
CHI
185cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Alejandro Tabilo
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Grass1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Alejandro Tabilo | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-7(2) 7-6(6) 6-2 |
| 2024-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-4 |