── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Lorenzo Sonego
78%22%
Hard: 71% / 29%
Clay: 86% / 14%
Grass: 71% / 29%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Lorenzo Sonego
71th · strong
Return
Tommy Paul
94th · elite
Lorenzo Sonego
29th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#99
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
185cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Lorenzo Sonego
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay3–0
Hard2–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-2 6-4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2 |
| 2021-08-16 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Lorenzo Sonego | 7-6(9) 6-2 |
| 2021-03-01 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 7-6(7) |
| 2015-05-25 | Italy F11 | Clay | F | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-4 |