── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Casper Ruud
53%47%
Hard: 62% / 38%
Clay: 35% / 65%
Grass: 89% / 11%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#23
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
NOR
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–2
Hard2–2
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Casper Ruud | 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(4) 7-5 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Tommy Paul | 6-2 1-6 6-3 |
| 2022-08-29 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Casper Ruud | 7-6(3) 6-7(5) 7-6(2) 5-7 6-0 |
| 2021-02-08 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Casper Ruud | 3-6 6-2 6-4 7-5 |
| 2020-09-28 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Casper Ruud | 6-1 1-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 |
| 2017-07-31 | Washington | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 3-6 7-5 3-0 RET |