── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
62%38%
Hard: 57% / 43%
Clay: 65% / 35%
Grass: 76% / 24%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58th · average
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#33
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-1 0-0 RET |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-1 6-1 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-0 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 2-6 6-7(4) 6-3 6-4 |