── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Alex De Minaur
44%56%
Hard: 38% / 62%
Clay: 50% / 50%
Grass: 45% / 55%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#8
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–1
Hard0–3
Grass0–1
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Hamburg | Clay | SF | Tommy Paul | 2-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R16 | Tommy Paul | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2023-07-31 | Los Cabos | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-02-27 | Acapulco | Hard | F | Alex De Minaur | 3-6 6-4 6-1 |
| 2022-06-20 | Eastbourne | Grass | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 4-6 6-4 |
| 2022-05-09 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(2) 6-4 |