── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 75% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Alexei Popyrin
75%25%
Hard: 79% / 21%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 83% / 17%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#75
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
185cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Grass1–0
Hard2–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-06-10 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | R16 | Tommy Paul | 5-7 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-11-01 | Paris Masters | Hard | Q2 | Tommy Paul | 4-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-02-01 | Murray River Open | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2019-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | Q1 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 5-7 6-4 |