── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Jack Draper
57%43%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 58% / 42%
Grass: 56% / 44%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Jack Draper
96th · elite
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Jack Draper
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#26
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
USA
country
GBR
185cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Jack Draper
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Grass1–0
Hard1–3
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Jack Draper | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Tommy Paul | 6-3 5-7 6-4 |
| 2024-02-26 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Jack Draper | 6-0 6-4 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 3-6 6-3 7-5 |
| 2024-01-08 | Adelaide | Hard | QF | Jack Draper | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-01-09 | Adelaide 2 | Hard | R16 | Jack Draper | 6-4 6-4 |