── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Tomas Machac
62%38%
Hard: 59% / 41%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 80% / 20%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Tomas Machac
72th · strong
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Tomas Machac
82th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#35
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
CZE
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Tomas Machac
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–3
Clay1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Adelaide | Hard | SF | Tomas Machac | 2-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-7(5) 6-4 |
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Tomas Machac | 3-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-09-25 | Tokyo | Hard | R16 | Tomas Machac | 2-6 6-3 7-6(4) |