── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 82% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Carlos Alcaraz
18%82%
Hard: 17% / 83%
Clay: 16% / 84%
Grass: 15% / 85%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Return
Tommy Paul
94th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#2
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–4
Clay0–2
Grass0–1
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-3 6-4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(6) 6-4 7-5 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-0 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6(7) |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2 |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Tommy Paul | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3 |