── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 65% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Luciano Darderi
65%35%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 48% / 52%
Grass: 88% / 12%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Luciano Darderi
58th · average
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Luciano Darderi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#42
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Luciano Darderi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Hard1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Luciano Darderi | 3-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 7-6(2) |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-4 |