── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul a slight 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Raphael Collignon
56%44%
Hard: 60% / 40%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Raphael Collignon
78th · strong
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Raphael Collignon
83th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#23
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
BEL
185cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Raphael Collignon
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 3-6 7-6(5) |