── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Arthur Fils 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Arthur Fils
44%56%
Hard: 49% / 51%
Clay: 37% / 63%
Grass: 67% / 33%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Arthur Fils
92th · elite
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Arthur Fils
84th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#7
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
FRA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Arthur Fils
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | QF | Arthur Fils | 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(6) |
| 2023-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-7(7) 6-4 |