── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Learner Tien
52%48%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 84% / 16%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Learner Tien
63th · average
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Learner Tien
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#22
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
USA
country
USA
185cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Learner Tien
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Learner Tien | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | Hard | SF | Tommy Paul | 4-6 6-4 6-3 |