── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tommy Paul
Joao Fonseca
46%54%
Hard: 43% / 57%
Clay: 51% / 49%
Grass: 73% / 27%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Return
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
BRA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tommy Paul■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–1
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Joao Fonseca | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 7-6(7) 7-6(3) |