── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Martin Damm
78%22%
Hard: 80% / 20%
Clay: 85% / 15%
Grass: 76% / 24%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Martin Damm
80th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Martin Damm
5th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#13
model rank
#88
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
USA
country
USA
188cm
height
203cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Martin Damm
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | R128 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 7-5 6-7(8) 7-5 |