── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Marin Cilic
77%23%
Hard: 73% / 27%
Clay: 71% / 29%
Grass: 44% / 56%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Marin Cilic
76th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Marin Cilic
43th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#12
model rank
#81
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
CRO
188cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Marin Cilic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay0–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 5-7 6-2 6-2 |
| 2018-09-14 | Davis Cup WG SF: CRO vs USA | Clay | RR | Marin Cilic | 6-1 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2017-09-22 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Marin Cilic | 7-6(3) 7-6(5) |