── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 84% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Kei Nishikori
84%16%
Hard: 80% / 20%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 53% / 47%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#13
model rank
#126
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
JPN
188cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Kei Nishikori
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2018-10-22 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Kei Nishikori | 7-6(3) 5-7 6-2 |