── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Roberto Carballes Baena
81%19%
Hard: 79% / 21%
Clay: 73% / 27%
Grass: 84% / 16%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Roberto Carballes Baena
22th · below avg
Return
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Roberto Carballes Baena
58th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#147
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ESP
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Roberto Carballes Baena
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-3 |