── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 86% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Jason Kubler
86%14%
Hard: 84% / 16%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 55% / 45%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Jason Kubler
47th · average
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Jason Kubler
56th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#12
model rank
#143
Hard
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
188cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Jason Kubler
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Clay1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Frances Tiafoe | 7-6(4) 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023-04-03 | Houston | Clay | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-08-29 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 7-6(3) 7-5 7-6(2) |