── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Yoshihito Nishioka
77%23%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 82% / 18%
Grass: 81% / 19%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Yoshihito Nishioka
20th · below avg
Return
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Yoshihito Nishioka
57th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#128
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
USA
country
JPN
188cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Yoshihito Nishioka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–3
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 7-6(6) 6-3 |
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | Hard | R16 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 3-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-07-22 | Atlanta | Hard | QF | Yoshihito Nishioka | 7-6(2) 6-2 |
| 2023-02-27 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 7-6(6) 6-4 |
| 2021-08-09 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2019-04-29 | Estoril | Clay | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 2-6 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2016-07-04 | Winnetka CH | Hard | F | Yoshihito Nishioka | 6-3 6-2 |