── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Daniil Medvedev
30%70%
Hard: 25% / 75%
Clay: 37% / 63%
Grass: 28% / 72%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#5
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
RUS
188cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–6
Clay1–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-09-20 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 6-4 [10-5] |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2021-03-22 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2020-08-31 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-1 6-0 |
| 2020-01-20 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-2 |
| 2019-07-29 | Washington | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 7-5 |
| 2015-05-17 | Nice | Clay | Q2 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 6-2 |