── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Alexander Bublik
60%40%
Hard: 59% / 41%
Clay: 46% / 54%
Grass: 47% / 53%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Alexander Bublik
89th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Alexander Bublik
47th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#13
model rank
#30
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
KAZ
188cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–2
Hard1–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Wimbledon | Grass | R32 | Alexander Bublik | 4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(11) 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Alexander Bublik | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | Grass | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 7-6(1) 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2022-06-20 | Eastbourne | Grass | R32 | Alexander Bublik | 5-7 7-6(4) 6-0 |
| 2019-07-29 | Washington | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-1 7-6(5) |