── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Jan Choinski
81%19%
Hard: 92% / 8%
Clay: 57% / 43%
Grass: 82% / 18%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Jan Choinski
45th · average
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Jan Choinski
22th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#12
model rank
#102
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
GBR
188cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Jan Choinski
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 4-6 6-2 7-5 6-2 |