── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Tommy Paul
53%47%
Hard: 56% / 44%
Clay: 34% / 66%
Grass: 45% / 55%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#12
model rank
#16
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Hard2–3
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Houston | Clay | SF | Tommy Paul | 7-5 4-6 7-6(7) |
| 2024-02-12 | Delray Beach | Hard | SF | Tommy Paul | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2022-01-10 | Adelaide 2 | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2021-11-08 | Stockholm | Hard | SF | Tommy Paul | 5-7 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2020-02-17 | Delray Beach | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2016-07-25 | Lexington CH | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2015-01-19 | USA F5 | Clay | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-7(7) 6-1 |