── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 80% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Lorenzo Sonego
80%20%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 67% / 33%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Lorenzo Sonego
71th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Lorenzo Sonego
29th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#13
model rank
#99
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
188cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Lorenzo Sonego
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–3
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2023-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Lorenzo Sonego | 2-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-11-24 | Davis Cup Finals QF: ITA vs USA | Hard | RR | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-3 7-6(7) |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-4 |