── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 85% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Yosuke Watanuki
85%15%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 81% / 19%
Grass: 64% / 36%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Yosuke Watanuki
14th · poor
Return
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Yosuke Watanuki
31th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#164
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
JPN
188cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Yosuke Watanuki
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 1-6 7-5 7-6(5) |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Yosuke Watanuki | 6-4 7-6(6) |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-4 |