── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Alexei Popyrin
66%34%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 55% / 45%
Grass: 66% / 34%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#75
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
188cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Hard1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Houston | Clay | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 6-4 7-6(6) |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 3-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 7-6(3) 2-6 6-3 |