── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Alexei Popyrin
78%22%
Hard: 79% / 21%
Clay: 55% / 45%
Grass: 86% / 14%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#13
model rank
#90
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
188cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Hard1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Houston | Clay | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 6-4 7-6(6) |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 3-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 7-6(3) 2-6 6-3 |