── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 91% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Jannik Sinner
9%91%
Hard: 8% / 92%
Clay: 9% / 91%
Grass: 13% / 87%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Jannik Sinner
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#12
model rank
#1
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
188cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Jannik Sinner
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–5
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(4) 6-2 |
| 2023-10-23 | Vienna | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-10-25 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 7-5 6-2 |
| 2019-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 3-4(4) 4-2 4-2 4-2 |
| 2019-10-14 | Antwerp | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 3-6 6-3 |