── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Brandon Nakashima
55%45%
Hard: 55% / 45%
Clay: 61% / 39%
Grass: 36% / 64%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Brandon Nakashima
89th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Brandon Nakashima
46th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#42
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Brandon Nakashima
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard6–1
Clay1–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Acapulco | Hard | SF | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 7-6(6) 6-4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Houston | Clay | SF | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 7-6(3) |
| 2024-09-25 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Brandon Nakashima | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2022-07-25 | Atlanta | Hard | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-03-21 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-03-15 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(5) |
| 2020-02-03 | Dallas CH | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 7-6(2) 7-5 |