── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 84% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Holger Rune
84%16%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 29% / 71%
Grass: 67% / 33%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#12
model rank
#127
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
DEN
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Holger Rune | 6-4 3-1 RET |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | SF | Frances Tiafoe | 4-6 6-1 7-6(4) |