── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Matteo Arnaldi
61%39%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 40% / 60%
Grass: 81% / 19%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#54
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–2
Grass1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 3-6 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-7(5) 2-6 6-1 6-3 6-3 |