── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Ben Shelton 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Frances Tiafoe
Ben Shelton
39%61%
Hard: 33% / 67%
Clay: 51% / 49%
Grass: 48% / 52%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Ben Shelton
99th · elite
Return
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Ben Shelton
60th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#13
model rank
#5
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
USA
country
USA
188cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Frances Tiafoe■ Ben Shelton
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–3
Clay0–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | US Open | Hard | SF | Ben Shelton | 4-6 6-3 6-3 7-5 |
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | QF | Ben Shelton | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 4-6 7-5 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-04-01 | Houston | Clay | F | Ben Shelton | 7-5 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Ben Shelton | 6-2 3-6 7-6(7) 6-2 |