── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alejandro Tabilo
Joao Fonseca
36%64%
Hard: 27% / 73%
Clay: 41% / 59%
Grass: 49% / 51%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alejandro Tabilo
78th · strong
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Return
Alejandro Tabilo
59th · average
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#30
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
CHI
country
BRA
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alejandro Tabilo■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Munich | Clay | R32 | Joao Fonseca | 7-6(1) 6-3 |
| 2026-02-09 | Buenos Aires | Clay | R16 | Alejandro Tabilo | 6-3 3-6 7-5 |
| 2024-04-15 | Bucharest | Clay | QF | Alejandro Tabilo | 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4 |