── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Berrettini 72% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Berrettini
Roberto Bautista Agut
72%28%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 79% / 21%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Berrettini
94th · elite
Roberto Bautista Agut
36th · below avg
Return
Matteo Berrettini
35th · below avg
Roberto Bautista Agut
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#40
model rank
#130
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ESP
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Berrettini■ Roberto Bautista Agut
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay3–0
Hard2–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Matteo Berrettini | 4-0 RET |
| 2021-02-02 | Atp Cup | Hard | SF | Matteo Berrettini | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2019-10-07 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Matteo Berrettini | 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2019-04-29 | Munich | Clay | SF | Matteo Berrettini | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2018-12-31 | Doha | Hard | R32 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2018-07-23 | Gstaad | Clay | F | Matteo Berrettini | 7-6(9) 6-4 |