── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 73% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Berrettini
Daniil Medvedev
27%73%
Hard: 22% / 78%
Clay: 45% / 55%
Grass: 63% / 37%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Berrettini
93th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Matteo Berrettini
37th · below avg
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#38
model rank
#5
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
RUS
196cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Berrettini■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–3
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-0 6-0 |
| 2022-01-03 | Atp Cup | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-7(5) 6-4 |
| 2021-02-02 | Atp Cup | Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2018-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(6) 7-5 6-4 |