── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Berrettini
Alexander Bublik
42%58%
Hard: 46% / 54%
Clay: 58% / 42%
Grass: 62% / 38%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Berrettini
93th · elite
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Return
Matteo Berrettini
37th · below avg
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#38
model rank
#24
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
KAZ
196cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Berrettini■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-01-05 | Antalya | Hard | QF | Alexander Bublik | 7-6(6) 6-4 |
| 2017-09-11 | Istanbul CH | Hard | SF | Matteo Berrettini | 7-5 6-3 |