── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Berrettini
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
38%62%
Hard: 36% / 64%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 68% / 32%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Berrettini
94th · elite
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
77th · strong
Return
Matteo Berrettini
35th · below avg
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#40
model rank
#21
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ESP
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Berrettini■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
Clay0–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 1-6 7-6(1) 6-4 |
| 2022-08-29 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Matteo Berrettini | 3-6 7-6(2) 6-3 4-6 6-2 |
| 2021-04-12 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-5 6-3 |