── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Berrettini
Alex De Minaur
30%70%
Hard: 28% / 72%
Clay: 43% / 57%
Grass: 59% / 41%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Berrettini
93th · elite
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Matteo Berrettini
37th · below avg
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#38
model rank
#8
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
AUS
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Berrettini■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–3
Grass2–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-1 7-6(4) |
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-3 7-6(7) |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-3 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-01-03 | Atp Cup | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2021-06-14 | Queen's Club | Grass | SF | Matteo Berrettini | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2017-07-31 | Segovia CH | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(4) 7-5 |