── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Berrettini 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Berrettini
Alexei Popyrin
63%37%
Hard: 71% / 29%
Clay: 64% / 36%
Grass: 89% / 11%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Berrettini
93th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Matteo Berrettini
37th · below avg
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#38
model rank
#75
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
AUS
196cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Berrettini■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard3–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R128 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2024-10-28 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Alexei Popyrin | 7-5 7-6(2) |
| 2021-10-25 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2019-08-26 | US Open | Hard | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-4 6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(2) |