── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 65% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Berrettini
Joao Fonseca
35%65%
Hard: 26% / 74%
Clay: 44% / 56%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Berrettini
94th · elite
Joao Fonseca
83th · strong
Return
Matteo Berrettini
35th · below avg
Joao Fonseca
88th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#40
model rank
#15
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
BRA
196cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Berrettini■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Joao Fonseca | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-09-11 | Davis Cup Finals RR: ITA vs BRA | Hard | RR | Matteo Berrettini | 6-1 7-6(5) |