── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Stefanos Tsitsipas a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Matteo Arnaldi
54%46%
Hard: 68% / 32%
Clay: 62% / 38%
Grass: 74% / 26%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Stefanos Tsitsipas
92th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Stefanos Tsitsipas
53th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#45
model rank
#54
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
GRE
country
ITA
193cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Stefanos Tsitsipas■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 7-6(2) 5-7 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 3-6 7-6(4) 6-2 6-2 |