── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Stefanos Tsitsipas a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Daniel Merida Aguilar
51%49%
Hard: 53% / 47%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 70% / 30%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Stefanos Tsitsipas
92th · elite
Daniel Merida Aguilar
39th · below avg
Return
Stefanos Tsitsipas
47th · average
Daniel Merida Aguilar
89th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#29
model rank
#31
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
GRE
country
ESP
193cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Stefanos Tsitsipas■ Daniel Merida Aguilar
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-4 6-2 |