── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Hubert Hurkacz 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Hubert Hurkacz
Denis Shapovalov
62%38%
Hard: 45% / 55%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Hubert Hurkacz
96th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Return
Hubert Hurkacz
55th · average
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#23
model rank
#49
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
POL
country
CAN
196cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Hubert Hurkacz■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–1
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Chengdu | Hard | SF | Hubert Hurkacz | 6-7(8) 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Hubert Hurkacz | 6-3 7-6(0) 4-6 6-1 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Hubert Hurkacz | 7-6(3) 6-4 1-6 4-6 6-3 |
| 2021-03-22 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Hubert Hurkacz | 6-3 7-6(6) |
| 2021-03-15 | Dubai | Hard | R16 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2019-08-19 | Winston-Salem | Hard | SF | Hubert Hurkacz | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2019-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Hubert Hurkacz | 7-6(3) 2-6 6-3 |