── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Hubert Hurkacz
Alex De Minaur
43%57%
Hard: 37% / 63%
Clay: 43% / 57%
Grass: 45% / 55%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Hubert Hurkacz
96th · elite
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Hubert Hurkacz
58th · average
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
POL
country
AUS
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Hubert Hurkacz■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–4
Clay1–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Beijing | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 3-2 RET |
| 2026-01-05 | United Cup | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2019-05-06 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Hubert Hurkacz | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2018-07-23 | Atlanta | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 1-6 7-6(0) 7-6(5) |