── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Lorenzo Sonego
Tommy Paul
23%77%
Hard: 32% / 68%
Clay: 14% / 86%
Grass: 33% / 67%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Lorenzo Sonego
69th · average
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Return
Lorenzo Sonego
40th · average
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#87
model rank
#14
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
USA
191cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Lorenzo Sonego■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–2
Hard1–2
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2 |
| 2021-08-16 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Lorenzo Sonego | 7-6(9) 6-2 |
| 2021-03-01 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 7-6(7) |
| 2015-05-25 | Italy F11 | Clay | F | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-4 |