── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Lorenzo Sonego
Tommy Paul
22%78%
Hard: 29% / 71%
Clay: 14% / 86%
Grass: 29% / 71%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Lorenzo Sonego
71th · strong
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Return
Lorenzo Sonego
29th · below avg
Tommy Paul
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#99
model rank
#16
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
USA
191cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Lorenzo Sonego■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–3
Hard1–2
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-2 6-4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2 |
| 2021-08-16 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Lorenzo Sonego | 7-6(9) 6-2 |
| 2021-03-01 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 7-6(7) |
| 2015-05-25 | Italy F11 | Clay | F | Tommy Paul | 6-1 6-4 |