── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi a slight 50% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Nuno Borges
Matteo Arnaldi
50%50%
Hard: 60% / 40%
Clay: 41% / 59%
Grass: 73% / 27%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Nuno Borges
59th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Nuno Borges
44th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#55
model rank
#54
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
POR
country
ITA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Nuno Borges■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Grass1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Cagliari CH | Clay | QF | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(3) |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | Grass | Q1 | Nuno Borges | 6-3 6-7(2) 6-2 |
| 2022-03-07 | Roseto Degli Abruzzi 1 CH | Clay | R16 | Nuno Borges | 6-7(5) 7-5 6-1 |