── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex Bolt 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Yosuke Watanuki
Alex Bolt
41%59%
Hard: 53% / 47%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 33% / 67%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Yosuke Watanuki
14th · poor
Alex Bolt
35th · below avg
Return
Yosuke Watanuki
31th · below avg
Alex Bolt
8th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#164
model rank
#145
Hard
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Left
JPN
country
AUS
180cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Yosuke Watanuki■ Alex Bolt
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-14 | Busan CH | Hard | R32 | Alex Bolt | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2024-11-04 | Matsuyama CH | Hard | SF | Alex Bolt | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-09-04 | Shanghai CH | Hard | R32 | Yosuke Watanuki | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2019-02-18 | Delray Beach | Hard | Q1 | Yosuke Watanuki | 6-1 6-1 |