── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Denis Shapovalov
Adrian Mannarino
66%34%
Hard: 73% / 27%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 26% / 74%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Adrian Mannarino
26th · below avg
Return
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Adrian Mannarino
59th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#49
model rank
#106
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Left
CAN
country
FRA
185cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Denis Shapovalov■ Adrian Mannarino
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | QF | Denis Shapovalov | 6-7(6) 6-3 6-2 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R128 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Washington | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2017-10-23 | Basel | Hard | R16 | Adrian Mannarino | 4-6 6-1 6-2 |
| 2017-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Denis Shapovalov | 2-6 6-3 6-4 |