── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Denis Shapovalov
Marin Cilic
61%39%
Hard: 68% / 32%
Clay: 51% / 49%
Grass: 15% / 85%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Marin Cilic
77th · strong
Return
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Marin Cilic
43th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#49
model rank
#83
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
CAN
country
CRO
185cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Denis Shapovalov■ Marin Cilic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass0–2
Hard3–2
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 's-Hertogenbosch | Grass | R32 | Marin Cilic | 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5 |
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Marin Cilic | 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
| 2021-06-07 | Stuttgart | Grass | QF | Marin Cilic | 7-5 7-6(3) |
| 2020-08-24 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2020-02-17 | Marseille | Hard | R16 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 4-6 6-2 |
| 2019-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2018-10-22 | Basel | Hard | R32 | Marin Cilic | 6-4 6-2 |