── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Denis Shapovalov
Kei Nishikori
70%30%
Hard: 76% / 24%
Clay: 45% / 55%
Grass: 19% / 81%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Return
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#49
model rank
#126
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
CAN
country
JPN
185cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Denis Shapovalov■ Kei Nishikori
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Hong Kong | Hard | R32 | Kei Nishikori | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2018-07-30 | Washington | Hard | R16 | Kei Nishikori | 7-6(1) 6-3 |
| 2018-02-26 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-7(3) 6-3 6-1 |